Analyze this – Michael Pachter Interview – Part Two
By Alex Co | May 31, 2011 | Interviews | 3 comments | Share
Here’s the concluding part of our exclusive interview with videogame-analyst, Michael Pachter. In this interview we talk about Nintendo’s upcoming console, EA’s Online Pass system, how Battlefield will stack up against Call of Duty commercially and a lot more.
If you want to know more about the man himself, I suggest reading the first part of our interview.
(Disclaimer: Aside from style, all answers are left unedited)
The Nintendo 3DS vs. the NGP or PS Vita if rumors are to be believed – who will win?
DeltaGamer: What do you think of the 3DS and the NGP, and their impact on the market and home consoles in general?
Both 3DS and NGP are really cool, but both will have smaller markets than their predecessors, primarily because of their high pricing. Once prices come down and software gets better, they have a chance at performing quite well.
DeltaGamer: Now that Nintendo has confirmed that the Wii 2, Project Café, Stream or whatever it’s called is true, do you think Sony or Microsoft will try and fast-track their own console development to counter it?
I do NOT expect Sony and Microsoft to respond to the Wii successor. Both will wait till 2014 to launch a new console. Look that prediction up: I made it in 2004.
DeltaGamer: We know that once revered franchises, the Tony Hawk and Guitar Hero games are not what they used to be; both commercially and critically. Do you see this happening to the Call of Duty franchise?
Every game franchise gets old eventually, so yes, I think Call of Duty will eventually peak and flatten out. I don’t know if it will ever die, because I see Activision being very smart about preserving the brand. It could turn into a Madden or a FIFA if they handle it right.
DeltaGamer: In your opinion, what would I take to dethrone Call of Duty? Will Battlefield 3 be able to do it or at the very least, make a sizable dent?
It’s hard to say whether Battlefield 3 will grow the overall market or whether it will take share from Call of Duty; for sure, BF3 is going to sell very well. I think CoD will keep growing until the market for multiplayer is saturated, and it’s anyone’s guess when we reach that point.
The big shooter showdown this fall - Modern Warfare 3 vs. Battlefield 3
DeltaGamer: Do you think the game to do it will come from EA? DICE and Respawn certainly comes to mind when you think about “big” FPS’ that can stand toe-to-toe with Call of Duty.
One thing is for sure, there will be an EA game (Battlefield 3), a Bungie game, a Respawn game and Call of Duty all competing for market share, and it feels like the market for online multiplayer games is reaching a saturation point. However, I would have said that about Guitar Hero way before it peaked.
DeltaGamer: What are your thoughts on the West and Zampella case? What do you foresee being the conclusion will be? What are the probabilities of each side’s stories being true and founded?
Jason and Vince have a pretty decent argument that they did what they were asked to do (put out a great game), and are owed a lot of bonus money. Activision’s argument that they were disloyal for talking to a prospective employer is not a very strong legal theory, but their argument that West/Zampella interfered with their business by poaching a number of former Infinity Ward employees is a pretty sold theory. It’s not possible for me to know the facts, but based upon what I’ve read, I would guess that Activision will end up paying West/Zampella some money. Juries can be funny, so you never know . . .
Most of my detractors aren’t particularly familiar with what I say, so their opinions about my conclusions are generally misinformedPachter on detractors
DeltaGamer: Where do you see the current market trend going? We see DLCs becoming more and more the norm, same with retail exclusive content. Do you think this is something that might backfire? It’s safe to say that this is something that more and more people are getting tired of – your thoughts and why it’s getting more and more popular?
I think DLC is a smart concept, and allows publishers to collect more than $60 for a $60 game. I don’t see it backfiring, but consumers are smart, and if the content is not compelling, they won’t buy it. It’s more popular because it’s more profitable, nothing more sinister than that.
DeltaGamer: What do you think of the Online Pass? EA, THQ and more publishers are going this route to circumvent second-hand game buyers. Is there a good middle-ground that both consumers and publishers can agree on?
I think that publishers would eradicate used game sales if they could, and online pass is a step toward limiting re-sales. I expect similar concepts to proliferate over the next several years, and no, there is no middle ground.
DeltaGamer: What do you want to say to your detractors? The same people who think/assume that you’re a paid mouthpiece for Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo or any other videogame company? – And in saying this, also the people who are quick to point out when your analysis is wrong.
Most of my detractors aren’t particularly familiar with what I say, so their opinions about my conclusions are generally misinformed. A few of my detractors are quite smart, and I respect their right to disagree with anything I say. I don’t say things because I’m trying to win a debate; I say things because I think they’re right, and I have the luxury in my job of being able to change my opinion. If people think I’m wrong, they can choose to disagree and to lay out a thoughtful case as to why they’re right. If I see such an argument, I am likely to consider it and shape my opinion accordingly.
The only time I am frustrated by detractors is when I see several comments related to the same article, with one saying I’m an Xbot, another saying I have a bias for Sony, and another saying I love Nintendo (or vice versa on all three). I don’t love or hate any company, I have views about what they do, and my views don’t always correlate to management views. Detractors who think I’m an idiot because I second guess Nintendo support their comments by saying “Nintendo is doing fine”, but don’t notice that Nintendo stock is at a three year low. I’m paid to second guess Nintendo, and they’re free to disagree.
I’d like to thank Michael Pachter for his invaluable insight and for his time, for more about the Pach-Man, be sure to watch his weekly show Pach-Attack on Gametrailers.
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